Trump Administration Claims Victory on Costs as Inflation Data Paints a More Complicated Picture

As millions of Americans prepare for Thanksgiving travel and holiday meals, the Trump administration is working overtime to convince the public that its economic policies are driving down costs. But while officials tout cheaper gas, lower turkey prices, and incoming tax refund boosts, new data reveals a far more complicated—and in many cases, contradictory—economic reality.

White House Celebrates “Most Affordable Thanksgiving in Years”

According to the administration, nearly 100 million Americans are expected to drive for the holiday next week, and they’ll be greeted with what officials describe as the “cheapest Thanksgiving gas prices since 2021.” The White House attributes this to President Trump’s revived “drill baby drill” energy agenda, which aims to increase domestic oil production and lower fuel costs.

Citing American Farm Bureau Federation data, officials also say this year’s Thanksgiving dinner will be 5% cheaper than last year, with the price of a 16-pound turkey down 16%. Trump aides argue this is proof the president is “putting more money back into Americans’ pockets,” alongside middle-class tax cuts and expected larger tax refunds in 2025—a boost estimated to average $1,000 per filer, according to a new Piper Sandler report.

But Americans Say They’re Still Struggling

While the administration paints a picture of declining costs, everyday Americans report something very different.

Prices for coffee (up 20%), electricity (up 5.1%), utilities (up 11.7%), and vehicle repair (up 11.5%) are pressing household budgets. On the Ramsay Show, financial counselors say they’re hearing from more families than ever who feel crushed by rising rent, healthcare premiums, and childcare.

The result? A record $103,000 average in consumer debt, driven by credit cards, student loans, and car payments.

“These big three—housing, healthcare, and food—are eating away our wallets,” one analyst said. “It is absolutely a cost-of-living crisis.”

Polls Show Americans Aren’t Buying the Trump Treasury’s Message

Despite Treasury officials insisting that tariffs are not contributing significantly to inflation—and that many prices will fall “within weeks or months”—the public overwhelmingly disagrees.

A recent poll shows:

84% of Democrats

74% of Independents

71% of Republicans

believe tariffs are directly raising prices. Analysts argue this rare bipartisan agreement illustrates how broadly the economic strain is being felt.

“Americans feel it in their pocketbooks,” one commentator said. “They don’t buy what the administration is selling.”

Who’s Responsible for the Economy? Americans Point to Trump

In another surprising finding, 62% of Americans say Donald Trump is responsible for the current economy, compared to 32% who point to President Biden.

Though Trump inherited Biden-era economic trajectories, the country is nearly a year into his administration, and voters appear to believe the economy is now squarely his responsibility.

Mixed Signals on Inflation, Jobs, and Wages

White House officials highlight recent progress: inflation down to 2.9%, Thanksgiving costs lower, and mortgage rates easing by roughly $200 on average.

They also claim wages are “rising at the fastest pace in 60 years.”

But economists note key contradictions:

Real wages did not rise during the Biden years, and many Americans still feel behind.

Black unemployment has hit 7.5%, the highest since 2021.

Corporate layoffs have surged past 1 million this year—the worst October since 2003.

Weekly jobless claims are approaching a four-year high.

Axios reports overall inflation is now the highest since 2022, and states representing nearly half the country are either in recession or close to entering one, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Farmers Sound the Alarm

Agricultural workers say the economic slowdown is hitting them hard. The University of Illinois estimates farmers will lose $100 per acre this year. Layoffs at John Deere and Case IH indicate a worsening outlook.

“We have no income,” one farmer said flatly. “Everyone in agriculture is struggling.”

Economists Predict a Rough Road Ahead

Some Trump advisers insist the economy will “accelerate strongly” in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. But as layoffs mount, prices remain elevated, and debt climbs, analysts warn that holiday spending will likely be driven not by rising wages, but by rising credit card balances.

The Bottom Line: Americans Aren’t Feeling the Recovery

Despite the administration’s narrative that gas is cheaper, groceries are down, and the economy is “humming,” many Americans say their daily reality tells a different story.

As one commentator put it:

“You can spin politics, but you can’t spin a bank account balance. And for most families right now, there’s not much left in it.”