The NHL season may have only just begun, but the Calder Trophy race—the annual coronation of the league’s best rookie—already has its two headline acts. One is a confident, smooth-skating defenseman on Long Island who looks nothing like an 18-year-old; the other, a dazzling forward in Montreal whose hands seem guided by instinct more than thought.

Matthew Schaefer and Ivan Demidov are setting the tone for what could be one of the most exciting rookie duels in recent memory—a clash of styles, personalities, and hockey philosophies that’s captivating two of the league’s most passionate fan bases.

Just ten days ago, Schaefer was considered a long shot in the betting markets. At +2200, few outside of die-hard Islanders fans believed the teenage defenseman could make much noise in the Calder conversation. But after only three games, that number has plummeted to +350. Suddenly, he’s not an underdog. He’s a revelation.

“He looks like he’s been here for years,” said analyst Frankie Curado during a recent broadcast. “You watch him on the ice, and he plays with the composure and command of a seasoned veteran. It’s the kind of confidence that doesn’t need to be loud—it just radiates from the way he moves.”

Schaefer’s transition to the NHL has been seamless—astonishingly so for someone who barely played junior hockey the previous season. The word most often used around team facilities and among opposing scouts is comfortable. Whether he’s absorbing forechecks, breaking out of his own zone, or jumping into the rush, the 18-year-old seems immune to the nervous energy that plagues most first-year players.

The key, as those who have watched him since his draft year will tell you, is his skating. “Watch his feet,” one scout warned months before the draft. “They’ll mesmerize you.”

Now, fans see exactly what that meant. His footwork—smooth, dynamic, and deceptively powerful—has drawn early comparisons to Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, two defensemen who revolutionized the modern NHL blue line. It’s lofty company for a teenager, but Schaefer’s blend of speed, poise, and vision makes it impossible not to dream big.

On Long Island, Patrick Roy has wasted no time recognizing what he has. Schaefer is already averaging more than 23 minutes per game, including top-pair minutes and first-unit power play duties. For a team still trying to find its rhythm, he’s become a cornerstone overnight. “He’s my best defenseman,” Roy was overheard saying to his staff during a recent game. It didn’t sound like hyperbole.

Across the border in Montreal, Ivan Demidov is carving his own story. The Russian winger, who entered the season as the Calder favorite at +240, hasn’t disappointed. With three points in four games and a growing confidence on every shift, he’s proving that the hype from his playoff cameo last year was well-earned.

Demidov plays the game like he’s composing music—there’s rhythm in his puck control, a beat to his skating, and crescendos in the way he attacks defenders. Watching him glide through the neutral zone, it’s clear that every movement has intention.

For now, his role in Montreal is measured. Head coach Martin St. Louis has been deliberate about his development, giving Demidov time to master each layer of responsibility before handing him the next. He’s not yet skating on the Canadiens’ top line or first power play unit, and he’s still learning the nuances of the North American game.

“It’s a progression,” Curado explained. “Demidov’s game comes alive the more he touches the puck. The more it runs through him, the more confident and dangerous he becomes. Once he’s given that bigger role—when he’s skating alongside Suzuki or Caufield—his production will take off.”

In a way, their early contrast is what makes the race fascinating. Schaefer is already carrying a heavy load, his ice time ballooning as the Islanders lean on him to stabilize an inconsistent roster. Demidov, meanwhile, is being sheltered—his minutes more modest, his situations more curated. But the talent? It’s undeniable on both sides.

The comparison to last year’s rookie class is unavoidable. Lane Hutson’s midseason promotion to Montreal’s first power play unit provided a blueprint for how Demidov’s responsibilities might expand over time. The Canadiens are balancing ambition with patience; they know they have a gem, and they’re determined not to rush the polish.

While the numbers tell one story, the eye test tells another. Demidov’s game radiates artistry—his hands soft as silk, his vision uncanny. His style contrasts sharply with Schaefer’s calculated precision. One dazzles through creativity; the other dominates through control. And somewhere in between lies the heart of this Calder battle: two rookies redefining what poise looks like at 18 and 19 years old.

For bettors, analysts, and fans alike, this early-season narrative is irresistible. “Right now, it’s a two-horse race,” Curado said flatly. “They’re playing in completely different situations, but both are excelling in their roles. It’s rare to see rookies this young look so polished so early.”

Schaefer’s emergence is perhaps the more surprising of the two stories. When the Islanders drafted him, the consensus was that his potential was immense but his readiness uncertain. Few expected him to not only make the roster but to lead it. His ability to read plays, anticipate pressure, and break the puck out cleanly has quickly made him indispensable.

And for a franchise in transition, that kind of steadiness is gold. The Islanders’ blue line has long sought a dynamic, modern defenseman capable of driving play from the back end. In Schaefer, they may have found it—years ahead of schedule.

Meanwhile, in Montreal, Demidov is the kind of player who makes fans lean forward in their seats. Every shift feels like the beginning of something viral—a highlight waiting to happen. His combination of speed, deception, and flair has reignited excitement at the Bell Centre, where the crowd buzzes every time he touches the puck.

There’s also a deeper story unfolding beneath the stats. The two rookies represent a generational shift in the league’s identity. Both Schaefer and Demidov embody a modern NHL that prizes creativity as much as structure, and intelligence as much as speed. The Calder Trophy, often a snapshot of the league’s future, feels especially symbolic this season.

For now, the standings and stats are almost secondary. What matters is the feeling—the sense that something special is unfolding in two cities that live and breathe hockey. Long Island has its calm, methodical prodigy; Montreal has its electric showman. And both are rewriting expectations for what rookies can be.

Of course, the season is long. Injuries, slumps, and team dynamics can shift narratives overnight. But as October melts into November, one thing is clear: the Calder Trophy isn’t just a race—it’s a story of two young players redefining what early excellence looks like in the world’s toughest league.

By spring, one of them will hoist the trophy. The other will likely be a finalist for years to come. But in truth, both have already won something more elusive than hardware: respect.

For Matthew Schaefer, that respect came in the form of trust—earning a coach’s confidence and the minutes that come with it. For Ivan Demidov, it came through patience—showing that he can adapt, grow, and dominate without losing his creativity.

The Calder race will evolve, but these two names are already etched into it. Montreal and Long Island are buzzing. The rest of the league is watching. And for fans of hockey’s future, this is the kind of rivalry worth savoring—one stride, one goal, and one magical rookie shift at a time.