Toronto — Thanksgiving weekend in Toronto was supposed to bring energy, optimism, and the kind of October baseball this city hasn’t seen in years. But by the end of Game One of the ALCS, the Rogers Centre crowd had fallen silent, watching yet another postseason opener slip away.

The Mariners — battered, exhausted, and forced to use their fifth starter — found a way to steal the game. The Blue Jays, behind their ace Kevin Gausman, couldn’t capitalize. And once again, the story of October was written in the smallest of margins — a misplaced pitch, a power hitter who refuses to cool off, and a young rotation that just got exposed to playoff pressure.

Cal Raleigh: The Jays’ Nightmare Continues

Steve Phillips, longtime MLB insider, summed it up simply: “Cal Raleigh owns the Rogers Centre.”

He’s not exaggerating. Raleigh, the Mariners’ slugging catcher affectionately nicknamed The Big Dumper, has been one of the toughest outs in baseball all year. Against Toronto, though, he’s been something else entirely.

Coming into Game One, Raleigh already had six hits in eleven career at-bats versus Gausman — three of them home runs, all off fastballs. On Sunday, the pattern repeated. In his first at-bat, Raleigh singled on a heater. By the sixth inning, he’d stopped guessing. He knew Gausman wouldn’t risk another fastball.

Instead, the veteran right-hander leaned on his splitter — his most devastating pitch. Five straight splitters. Raleigh saw enough of them to adjust. The last one stayed just high enough, and he didn’t miss.

The crack of the bat told the story before the crowd could react. Another home run. Another Raleigh dagger.

“That’s a smart hitter understanding the adjustment,” Phillips said on TSN’s postgame broadcast. “He knew Gausman had changed the plan. He waited him out, got under that splitter, and punished it. That’s big-league baseball.”

The Fifth Starter Who Looked Like an Ace

If Raleigh was the hammer, Bryce Miller was the anvil. The Mariners’ fifth starter wasn’t even supposed to pitch in this spot. Seattle’s rotation had been stretched to the limit in its grueling five-game Division Series against Detroit. Their top three starters were unavailable. Their bullpen, overworked.

And then, somehow, Miller turned in the performance of his young career.

He gave up a home run to open the game — a jolt of energy for the home crowd — but from that point on, he was unshakable. Over the next six innings, he carved through Toronto’s lineup with ruthless efficiency, retiring 24 of 25 batters at one point.

“It’s remarkable,” Phillips said. “This was supposed to be the game the Blue Jays stole — facing a kid on short rest, a depleted bullpen. Instead, the Mariners flipped the script.”

Seattle’s pitching staff combined for a near-flawless stretch of dominance, retiring 24 of 25 hitters in a row. The Jays’ potent offense, built to crush mistakes, couldn’t find a way to string together consistent contact.

This wasn’t just a bad night. It was a missed opportunity — and one that could define the series.

Missed Chances and Familiar Frustrations

The Jays came into this series healthy, confident, and rested. They had Gausman lined up for Game One, a bullpen at full strength, and a lineup that had rediscovered its rhythm in the ALDS.

But baseball, especially in October, punishes expectation.

Every time Toronto built early momentum, the Mariners found a way to snuff it out. Every promising swing seemed to die in the outfield gaps. Every rally stalled one pitch too soon.

After Miller’s shaky first inning, the Jays failed to capitalize again — and again. By the time the eighth rolled around, Seattle’s bullpen had settled into a rhythm. The Rogers Centre crowd, once electric, had gone quiet.

A Series Already Shifting

When the final out landed in Julio Rodríguez’s glove, the score wasn’t the only thing that felt heavy. The loss marked more than just an 0–1 start — it represented a stolen opportunity against a tired opponent.

Now, Toronto faces a must-win Game Two on Thanksgiving Monday.

Trey Savage, the Jays’ young right-hander, will take the mound — an arm filled with potential but little postseason experience. The Mariners have never faced him before, which could work in his favor. His unique release point and late-breaking velocity might neutralize hitters like Raleigh, who feast on predictability.

But with the series shifting to Seattle afterward, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

“This is a critical game,” Phillips emphasized. “You don’t want to head out west down 0–2. The Mariners’ rotation only gets stronger from here. You’ve got to punch back now.”

Gausman’s October Struggles Continue

For Gausman, this outing will sting. Once again, his regular-season dominance didn’t translate under the playoff lights. His signature splitter, usually untouchable, was too predictable by the middle innings.

The Mariners adjusted. The Jays didn’t.

Manager John Schneider defended his ace after the game, pointing to Gausman’s command and pitch mix, but the numbers tell a harsher story. Raleigh’s success wasn’t an accident — it was preparation meeting repetition.

Toronto’s pitching plan worked against lesser lineups this season. But in the ALCS, every tendency becomes a tell.

Bo Bichette’s Absence Still Looms

Adding to Toronto’s woes is the absence of shortstop Bo Bichette, whose lingering knee injury has kept him off the active roster. Without his steady bat and aggressive presence on the bases, the lineup feels one dimension short.

Bichette’s rehab has been ongoing, but after showing visible discomfort while running the bases in workouts, he wasn’t cleared for the ALCS. The team remains hopeful he’ll be ready if the Jays advance to the World Series.

Until then, the offense must find production elsewhere — something it failed to do in Game One.

Thanksgiving Monday: Must-Win Territory

Game Two now looms as both a test and a turning point. Trey Savage faces the weight of expectation that comes with pitching for a desperate team on a holiday afternoon, with a city watching and an opponent brimming with confidence.

If he can deliver — if the Jays’ bats finally wake up — Toronto can salvage momentum before heading to Seattle. If not, the series could slip away before it truly begins.

As Pat Riley once said, “It’s not a series until the road team wins a game.” Seattle just did. Now it’s up to Toronto to answer.

For a club that’s spent all year talking about unfinished business, this might be their last chance to prove it.