Friday marks NHL Futures Day at FanDuel, and there’s no better time to take a deep dive into the market with sports betting analyst Todd Ferman. Futures betting is about long-term projections — wagering on awards, division winners, goal totals, and ultimately, the Stanley Cup. It’s speculative, risky, and often rewarding for those who identify trends early. This year’s board is full of familiar names at the top, but as Ferman points out, there’s always room for value plays and long-shot contenders.

McDavid Leads the Hart Trophy Race

It should surprise no one that Connor McDavid sits atop the Hart Trophy futures list. The Oilers’ captain remains the face of the NHL and a perennial scoring leader. Following closely are Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov, two of the most dynamic forwards in the game.

But Ferman warns against overlooking a familiar name: Kirill Kaprizov of the Minnesota Wild.

“Kaprizov was actually the Hart front-runner before injury derailed his season,” Ferman explained. “When you look at his numbers and what he means to Minnesota offensively, he checks every box. If he stays healthy, he’s as good a bet as anyone on the board.”

Kaprizov enters the year fresh off a massive contract extension that pushed him into the NHL’s financial elite. The challenge, as Ferman quipped, is whether he can still play light on his feet “without being weighed down by that new fancy contract.”

Young Defensemen Resetting the Market

The Norris Trophy race has also shifted thanks to the new wave of elite young defensemen. Quinn Hughes in Vancouver and Cale Makar in Colorado headline the betting board as the clear front-runners.

“Those two are the most logical candidates,” said Ferman. “But the board also respects Zach Werenski after his strong bounce-back season.”

Still, Ferman has an eye on a few long shots. Lane Hutson of Montreal, last year’s Calder Trophy winner, has already proven his value quarterbacking the Canadiens’ power play. While raw, his offensive instincts fit perfectly into a league that increasingly rewards puck-moving defensemen.

Another name to watch: Thomas Harley of the Dallas Stars. Listed at 60-1, Harley doesn’t run the top power play unit — that belongs to Miro Heiskanen — but his ability to jump into the play could result in his first 20-goal season.

“Harley is a dart throw,” Ferman admitted. “But if he raises his assist totals and Dallas makes noise in the standings, voters will notice.”

Canadian Division Hopefuls

Every NHL season begins with one burning question north of the border: which Canadian team, if any, can break the country’s decades-long Stanley Cup drought? But before we get to June, the divisional battles offer value.

Ferman was asked to select a Canadian team to win its division. The obvious pick would be the Edmonton Oilers, favorites in the Pacific Division, but he opted for a bolder call.

“I’ll make a case for the Ottawa Senators in the Atlantic,” he said. “They’re young, they’re improving, and they won’t face the same wear and tear as older rosters. Toronto has to replace Mitch Marner’s production, Florida only cares about getting in, and Tampa Bay has mileage on its core. Ottawa is the sleeper.”

The Senators boast a nucleus of Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, and Jake Sanderson, all still climbing toward their primes. If Ottawa can stabilize its goaltending, it could surprise the market.

The 60-Goal Club

One of FanDuel’s more intriguing futures markets involves betting on players to reach the elusive 60-goal mark. The candidates: Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews, and David Pastrňák.

“It’s a tough market because so much has to go right,” Ferman cautioned. “Draisaitl is priced correctly as the favorite, but Matthews’ number is short given Toronto’s style shift. By default, I’d lean Pastrňák.”

Boston’s star winger is essentially the lone elite offensive driver on a Bruins roster transitioning to a new era. That focus from opposing defenses makes his task harder, but also guarantees heavy usage and prime opportunities.

Stanley Cup Futures: A Case for Winnipeg

Ferman, notorious for sidestepping Stanley Cup predictions, reluctantly engaged when asked which Canadian team offers the best value to win it all. His answer: the Winnipeg Jets, listed just under 20-1.

“I know people point to Connor Hellebuyck’s playoff shortcomings,” he said. “But I think those are in the past. Winnipeg exceeded expectations last season, and adding Jonathan Toews brings championship pedigree to the locker room.”

The Jets’ challenge lies in the Central Division gauntlet, where Colorado, Dallas, and even a retooled St. Louis all loom large. Still, with Hellebuyck in net and Kyle Connor providing elite scoring, Winnipeg has the formula to at least make a run.

Market Trends and the Cap Era

Beyond the individual markets, Ferman noted that NHL futures are heavily influenced by cap dynamics and recent signings. Luke Hughes’ $9 million deal in New Jersey, Kaprizov’s megadeal in Minnesota, and the looming extensions for Hutson, Quinn Hughes, and Makar all reset benchmarks. Agents now point to these numbers as comparables, further shaping the marketplace.

As the salary cap rises, expect even more volatility in futures pricing. Teams with younger stars locked into bargain deals, like Ottawa or Montreal, can sustain depth and push further. Established contenders with expensive cores, like Edmonton or Toronto, face thinner margins.

Betting Strategy: Patience and Value

Futures markets are long-term investments. Injuries, trades, and breakout performances can drastically alter the landscape. Ferman recommends looking for situations where narratives and value intersect.

“Don’t just take the favorite,” he cautioned. “McDavid at the top makes sense, but is the price worth it when one injury could wipe the ticket out? Look for players like Kaprizov or situations like Ottawa where the market hasn’t fully caught up.”

The NHL season is long and unpredictable, but for bettors willing to forecast months ahead, FanDuel’s Futures Day offers opportunities to stake positions early.

Final Word
From McDavid’s quest for another Hart to Ottawa’s push for legitimacy, from Lane Hutson’s potential leap to Winnipeg’s underdog path to the Cup, the futures market is buzzing with possibilities.

As Ferman summed it up: “You can’t predict everything in the NHL, but you can find value if you know where to look.”